FROM THE WEEKLY STANDARD:

“A new poll from Florida conduced by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research finds 34.4 percent of Republican voters going for Newt Gingrich and 25.6 percent for Mitt Romney. Ron Paul has support from 13.1 percent, while Rick Santorum gets 10.7 percent.

The poll is “Among Registered Voters Who Will be Voting in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary,” and was conducted the day after Gingrich handily won the South Carolina contest.

This poll could either be an outlier or the beginning of a big shift in the Sunshine State. The RealClearPolitics average for Florida, with this InsiderAdvantage one included, has Romney at 36.7 percent, Gingrich at 26.0 percent, Santorum 13.7 percent, and Paul with 10.7 percent.”

Democratic-leaning polling firm PPP announced on Twitter last night that it was currently polling Florida, the location of the next Republican primary contest. “First night of our Florida polling: Romney and Gingrich are neck and neck,” PPP announced. A few minutes later, came this one: “2 more people picked Mitt than Newt out of about 600 people we polled tonight…that’s how close we’re talking.”

It’s time for a gut check.  Daily Tracking Polls in this GOP presidential race has become more of an online sweepstakes than a scientific and professionally-evaluated measurement of voter response.

As voters, it helps to know a bit about the business of polling.  There are media driven polls from ABC or FOX News for instance, and public information polls from proven pollsters like Rasmussen, for instance.  The Kitchen Cabinet generally trusts Rasmussen the most.  Washington Post/CNN polls or Wall Street Journal/CBS polls…we don’t give as much credence to.  Media driven polls are too often focused on getting headlines.  You can probably tell.

Most importantly though, daily tracking polls are really for INSIDERS, not OUTSIDERS like political bystanders.  It takes weeks of watching the trends in DAILY polls, to see real measurable positions for one candidate or another. This year though, the media is influencing the GOP field in a very cunning and deliberate way by insisting on almost two debates per week and then immediately releasing the tracking polls.  Again, Daily Tracking Polls give you impulse readings.  Like text results of “winners” on American Idol.  People’s feelings and gut checks change with every song!

By measuring and reporting polling every single day, the media is driving the Republican race into a flurry and scrambling the race.  WHY THEY WOULD WANT TO DO THAT?

It helps drive ratings, increases audiences for debates, and gives the media INFLUENCE.

Today’s polling reflects Mitt Romney way ahead for the long haul, and Newt like a comet since South Carolina.  Let’s see where the tracking polls take us…in a week.

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Filed under: Economy, Featured, Inside The KC, Politics by Sonja Eddings Brown, Jan 23, 2012