Despite the rising polls,  it seems unlikely that Mitt Romney will actually WIN Iowa.

Insiders tell The Kitchen Cabinet that the Romney campaign has only FIVE staffers working the entire state.  

Mitt Romney has not spent as much time in the state as he did in 2008, when he was literally slapped down and rejected by Iowa voters.  Can Romney win with just a small staff, a fraction of the political advertising dollars he spent in ’08, and with  power Evangelical

grassroots opposition organizing against him?

It seems daunting.  AND…there’s another spoiler.

Latest polling indicates a dead heat between Governor Romney at 23% in Iowa, and Ron Paul at 21%.  But the Ron Paul campaign is exceptionally well-organized on the ground, and Paul has built his entire 2012 strategy around winning Iowa.  If Paul can show strength in Iowa, he believes he will be able to pick up delegates all across the country and then possibly divide the Republican Convention next Summer.  So Mitt Romney not only has a wall of Iowa faith leaders determined that his Mormonism disqualifies him for the presidency, but fundamental Libertarians working hard as well to build a surprise win for Ron Paul.

Iowa, in a sense, is a battle all its own.  Mitt Romney has some great cheerleaders though, Chris Christy, George H.W. Bush, even Nikki Haley from South Carolina and Tea Party Senator Kelly Ayotte from New Hampshire.  The latter two, interestingly enough, ENDORSED by Sarah Palin.  Is this a sign?

Look what the Christian Science Monitor has to say:

Four days before the Iowa caucuses, it’s now clear that Mitt Romney could win there and then the New Hampshire primary a week later.

Mitt Romney and Ron Paul Suddenly Deadlocked in Iowa

The latest Iowa polls show the former Massachusettsgovernor neck and neck with Texas Rep. Ron Paul for the lead, with both in the low 20s among likely caucus goers. In New Hampshire, polls show an average 20-point lead for Mr. Romney over his nearest competitor, Congressman Paul.

If Romney wins both, that would be unprecedented for someone who isn’t already president.

Since the GOP Iowa caucuses began to matter in 1980, Iowa and New Hampshire have had a history of going in different directions. And if Romney wins both by comfortable margins, then for all intents and purposes, it’s game over.

Romney will have a lock on the Republican nomination, as the only candidate with momentum, big money, a national organization, and substantial room for growth in his numbers. (Iowa provides a clue on that last point: 50 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers view Romney as “acceptable” for the nomination, versus only 35 percent who see Paul that way, according to the new NBC-Marist poll.)

Election 101: How an Iowa GOP caucus works

“If he wins both, the image that it’s over will be hard to shake,” says Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist

Enduring All The Changing Winds Of Iowa

University in Dallas. The media will be full of stories about how no one who is not already president has ever pulled off the one-two punch.

But if Romney wins Iowa with a small plurality, that will give hope to the also-rans. And there’s no indication that Romney can win Iowa going away, because of continuing reservations over his moderate image, policy flip-flops, and Mormonism.  

Also, the caucus format favors the most enthusiastic voters, as it requires attending an evening-long event at an appointed time, unlike a primary. The NBC-Marist poll shows Romney has less “strong support” (51 percent of his voters) than the surging Rick Santorum (59 percent), Paul (54 percent), and Rick Perry (52 percent).

Among tea party supporters, Romney and Paul are tied at 17 percent each. The only candidate who performs better is Santorum, at 20 percent. Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, whose overall numbers have taken a dive, polls at 16 percent among tea partyers. Texas Governor Perry gets 15 percent, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann gets 10 percent.

Evangelical Leaders Need To Keep Their Eye On Obama, Not Romney's Faith

Iowa Evangelical leaders may also be giving Mitt Romney a hard think.  As difficult as it might be for the spiritually-devoted group to support a “Mormon”, by NOT supporting Romney, the Evangelical community could become the best players on Obama’s team.

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Filed under: Economy, Featured, Inside The KC, Politics by Sonja Eddings Brown, Dec 31, 2011