New polls out confirm that we are watching a beauty contest, not a presidential contest.  Newt Gingrich suddenly at 32 points in one poll, and in a dead heat with Mitt Romney in another?

In this week’s polling from Iowa, respondents say it’s Newt Gingrich all the way.  But this is Friday.  Monday it could all be different.

“The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers shows Gingrich with 32% followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 19%. Georgia businessman Herman Cain, who led in Iowa last month, drops to third with 13% of the vote. Texas Congressman Ron Paul draws 10% of the vote in Iowa, while Texas Governor Rick Perry and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann each grab six percent (6%). (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Three Frontrunners For Iowa Caucuses

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum draws support from five percent (5%) of caucus-goers while former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman picks up two percent (2%). Only one percent (1%) would prefer some other candidate and six percent (6%) more are undecided.”

The former Speaker is riding a polling honeymoon at 32 percent, Mitt Romney dropping down to 19%  and Herman Cain feeling the consequences of negative publicity at13%.   The truth is Herman Cain has lost traction and Newt has picked it up.

It’s difficult for voters to really get an honest picture of the Republican Presidential field, because so many of the polls are paid for in part, or entirely, by THE MEDIA.  FOX, CNN, the WALL STREET JOURNAL, USA TODAY, CBS, NBC, ABC, NEW YORK TIMES.  They all underwrite political polling because each outlet is desperate for HEADLINES.  Rasmussen is highly-regarded, but still.  Newt Gingrich jumping 24 points in a week according to some measures?  His performances in each of the debates have been rock solid, but the leap is still hard to believe.

The other variable is, the question!

Are you SICK of the way President Obama is leading the nation?

Or… Do you feel that the President is doing a good job considering the economy he inherited?  Pollsters can shape the outcome of a poll simply by the way they present the question.

The current numbers in Iowa are soft.  Newt Gingrich has become a bright fixture on the debate stage, but remember, his campaign staffers have formed a mass exodus, not once but twice.  Campaign donations may start pouring in now, but in the past ten or twelve weeks, the former Speaker has basically been running only a news media campaign.  After Thanksgiving, Gingrich will have but four weeks to get a ground game moving in Iowa if he expects to make a showing anywhere near this week’s polling numbers.

And…. Michele Bachmann, Iowa native?  Don’t count her out.

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Filed under: Featured, Inside The KC, Politics, Uncategorized by Sonja Eddings Brown, Nov 18, 2011