Don’t Believe Everything You HEAR Tonight
November 6, 2012
David Axelrod and David Plouffe….Obama campaign masterminds.
There are so many forces at work on Election Night. Campaigns are floating all sorts of numbers, especially trying to misinform the other side about its tactics and capacity. Exit Polls are going to be especially weak because of a unique political theory called “Shy Tory Factor.” What is it? Well its why Barack Obama could be losing BIG, and why Great Britian’s historic Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher surprised her own country by unexpectedly WINNING. Learn the truth about EXIT POLLING, by attorney and blogger Lowell C. Brown:
We’ll be hearing numbers from exit polls all day today. Don’t believe
Exit Polls are only as authentic as the voters who participate…..
those numbers! A great many of the voters who matter in this election – independents who voted for Obama in 2008, but who change their minds this time — are not going to walk out of the polling place and tell a pollster (usually a college kid) that they voted for Romney.
In “change” elections like this one, when it’s simply not fashionable to vote for a certain candidate, this is called the “Shy Tory Factor,” explained here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor
Margaret Thatcher won when the experts said…she wouldn’t.
The name arose from the 1979 British elections, “where the share of the vote won by the Conservative Party (known as the ‘Tories’) in elections was substantially higher than the proportion of people in opinion polls who said they would vote for the party.” National Review’s Jim Geraghty thinks there’s an American version, as he wrote in his Morning Jolt newsletter yesterday:
Folks like me have been wondering for a while whether folks on the right — with distrust and suspicion of the media fueled by decades’ worth of stories and examples and anecdotes of what they deem media bias — are more likely to hang up on the pollster, and/or urge him to do anatomically difficult things to himself, than folks on the left. Think of this as an American version of the “Shy Tory” factor.
Romney supporters need to work hard all day and then watch for the real results after the polls close and the votes have been counted.
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