Associated Press is reporting that inside  polling data, reveals that Mitt Romney could be the surprise winner at the Iowa Caucuses on Tuesday.  According to GOP pollsters, Ron Paul is actually FADING, not gaining on Romney.

How is this possible when all the national polls show a tight battle?

Media-driven polling from the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, ABC, NBC, Politico, measure voter preferences in small samples, and often are BEHIND what is actually happening on the ground.  By the time such polls are seen and heard by the public, they’re dated.  The public thus, sees one thing on TV, while pollsters taking daily measurements and watching incremental changes, are seeing fresher responses on the ground.  The Cain campaign serves as a perfect example.  Despite the growing allegations against him, his polling numbers appeared strong.  But within seven days, Cain’s numbers slowly started to decline.  First five percent, then ten percent, as the consequences of his personal choices actually sank into U.S. households through TV, radio, internet, and newspapers.  The true reaction of the public showed up 10-14 days later.

The same thing is happening in Iowa.  Paul WAS surging, briefly.  But as Iowa voters truly contemplate the potential of a Ron Paul candidacy, inside, daily campaign polling shows that his support in Iowa is decaying.  The beneficiary?  Rick Santorum who is now the last hope for the “anyone but Romney” crowd.  From AP:

“The polling numbers show Santorum ascendant and Paul falling. During the last two days of the poll, taken Dec. 27-30, Santorum drew 21 percent while Paul had fallen back to 18. The survey showed that 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they still might change their minds.”

Here’s the real defining dynamic of Tuesday’s Iowa Caucuses:  Evangelical leaders working their congregations on New Year’s Day and the Sabbath.  Iowa still boasts over 50% Christian voters, and if they respond to the quiet direction of their religious leaders as they did in 2008 when Mike Huckabee was propelled into a big win in Iowa, Rick Santorum could be the new GOP surprise on Tuesday, but pollsters have their money on Romney.

Here’s more from Associated Press:

The GOP Beauty Contest Almost Over

“Mitt Romney is the clear Republican front-runner in Iowa in the final days before the first voting in the 2012 presidential election. But that’s where the clarity ends in this unpredictable nomination race.

Five others are fighting, as they have all year, to emerge as the Romney alternative.

The ascendant Rick Santorum and Rick Perry are battling to win over social conservatives. Libertarian-leaning Ron Paul is working to preserve support that’s starting to slip. Newt Gingrich is struggling to end his sharp slide. Michele Bachmann is hardly a factor.

“It may be Romney’s to lose at this point,” said John Stineman, an Iowa GOP campaign strategist. “And it’s a battle among the rest.”

While much can happen before Tuesday’s caucuses, public surveys and internal polls as well as interviews with Republican activists, Iowa voters and political operatives both inside and outside the candidates’ campaigns suggest that Romney is in strong contention to win Tuesday’s caucuses.

Paul, who surged this month, has faded some following attacks on his foreign policy positions. Santorum and Perry are climbing, but evangelical Republicans and cultural conservatives continue to divide their support among the field — giving Romney an opening. And a large contingent of voters hasn’t yet locked in on a candidate as the clock winds down.

Despite rapidly shifting dynamics, two things were clear on the final weekend before the caucuses: The yearlong effort to establish a consensus challenger to Romney had failed, and Romney’s carefully laid plan to survive Iowa was succeeding. It relies on conservative voters failing to rally behind one candidate.

He was either slightly ahead or in a virtual tie with Paul in NBC/Marist and CNN/Time polls, with Santorum running third. A new poll by The Des Moines Register, which has endorsed Romney, late Saturday showed Romney and Paul statistically even at the front of the pack. Romney had 24 percent while Paul had 22 percent. Santorum was third with 15 percent of likely voters backing him.

Santorum Hoping To Raise Visibility Even If He Doesn't Win

Gingrich had 12 percent support and Perry had 11 percent. Bachmann trailed with 7 percent.”

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Filed under: Economy, Featured, Inside The KC, Politics by Sonja Eddings Brown, Jan 1, 2012